F – Financials
- Revenue & Cash Flow: Generated £390m operational cash flow in 2024, with gross cash cover of 2.1x the dividend and net cover of 1.0x after debt repayment[1].
- Dividend: 2025 target of 7.55p per share (10.3% yield at Feb 2025 share price), up 1.1% from 2024[1][4].
- Net Asset Value (NAV): 115.9p per share at end 2024, down 9.2% YoY due to lower power price forecasts, higher discount rates, and grid outages[1][4].
- Debt: 90% of debt is fixed rate, average cost 3.5%. RCF (revolving credit facility) expected to reduce to £100m in 2025 from divestments and cash flow[1].
- Expenses: Ongoing operating expenses ratio of 1.04%[1].
- Share Price: Trades at a ~29% discount to NAV, reflecting macro headwinds rather than operational weakness[1][3].
A – Advancement Drivers (Growth Catalysts)
- Portfolio Diversification: 2.7GW across 80+ assets (onshore wind 48%, offshore wind 32%, solar 14%, battery/flexible 6%)[1][2].
- Inflation Linkage: 60% of projected revenues over the next decade are inflation-linked; 80% of 12-month revenues are fixed per unit of electricity[1].
- Development Pipeline: 1GW of projects could enter construction by 2030, including battery storage (e.g., Ryton project commissioning in H2 2025)[1][2].
- Active Capital Management: Share buybacks, debt reduction, and selective reinvestment in high-return projects[1][3].
- ESG & Decarbonisation: 5.9TWh of clean electricity generated in 2024, displacing 2m tonnes of CO₂[1].
C – Competitive Landscape & Sector Outlook
Competitive Landscape
| Peer Trusts | Focus/Strengths | TRIG Positioning |
|---|---|---|
| Greencoat UK Wind | Pure wind, UK-centric | Broader tech/geographic diversification |
| Octopus Renewables | Solar and storage focus | Larger, more mature portfolio |
| Bluefield Solar | Solar-heavy, UK focus | More balanced wind/solar mix |
Sector Outlook
- Renewables Growth: UK and EU policy support for net zero targets drives long-term demand for wind, solar, and storage[2][3].
- Power Prices: Short-term volatility and lower wind resource in 2024 impacted sector returns, but long-term fundamentals remain robust[3][4].
- Interest Rates: Higher rates have increased discount rates and pressured NAVs across the sector, but TRIG’s fixed-rate debt structure mitigates risk[1][3].
- Battery Storage: Growing importance for grid stability and revenue diversification; TRIG’s pipeline positions it well for future returns[2][3].
T – Target Price (Valuation & Forecast)
| Scenario | 12-Month Target | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | 95p | Prolonged power price weakness, persistent NAV discount |
| Base | 115p | Dividend stability, narrowing discount, stable power prices |
| Bull | 130p | Power price recovery, successful battery/storage rollout, discount closes to NAV |
- Dividend Yield: 10.3% at current share price, with strong cash cover[1][4].
- NAV Discount: Any narrowing of the current ~29% discount would accelerate total returns[1][3].
O – Obstacles (Risks)
- Power Price Volatility: Lower wind resource and grid outages can reduce cash flow and dividend cover[3][4].
- Interest Rate Risk: Higher rates increase discount rates and pressure NAVs, though most debt is fixed[1][3].
- Operational Issues: Asset-specific faults or delays in new project commissioning (e.g., battery storage) can impact returns[3].
- Regulatory/Political: Changes in subsidy regimes or energy policy could affect long-term revenue streams[2][3].
R – Recommendation
Hold/Accumulate for Income and Inflation Protection
- Income Appeal: Attractive, resilient 10%+ yield, with inflation-linked revenues and strong cash cover[1][2].
- Growth Potential: Battery storage and development pipeline offer upside as renewables and grid flexibility demand grow[2][3].
- Risk Management: Diversified portfolio, prudent capital structure, and active management mitigate sector-specific risks[1][3].
Key Monitorables:
- Dividend cover rebound in 2025
- Progress on battery storage projects (e.g., Ryton)
- Power price trends and discount to NAV
TRIG is well-suited for income-focused investors seeking exposure to the energy transition, with the potential for capital appreciation if the NAV discount narrows.
Citations:
[1] https://www.trig-ltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/TRIG-FY-2024-Annual-Report.pdf
[2] https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/investment-trusts/investment-trust-research/the-renewables-infrastructure-group-march-2025-update
[3] https://www.trustintelligence.co.uk/investor/articles/fund-research-investor-trig-renewables-infrastructure-group-retail-dec-2024
[4] https://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/news/industry-news/the-renewables-infrastructure-group-continues-to-navigate-challenging-market
[5] https://www.trig-ltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/TRIG-FY-2024-Annual-Results-Presentation.pdf
[6] https://www.investments.halifax.co.uk/research-centre/news-centre/article/?id=19006198&type=bsm
[7] https://quoteddata.com/2025/02/the-renewables-infrastructure-group-continues-to-navigate-challenging-market-environment/
[8] https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1066029/renewables-infrastructure-group-under-a-cloud-says-analyst-but-2025-should-be-better-for-sector-1066029.html
[9] https://www.trig-ltd.com/investors/reports-and-publications/
[10] https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/t/the-renewables-infrastructure-group-ord-npv
[11] https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/TRIG/the-renewables-infrastructure-group-limited/company-page
[12] https://www.trig-ltd.com/news-media/news/classification/results/
[13] https://markets.ft.com/data/investment-trust/tearsheet/historical?s=TRIG%3ALSE
[14] https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/TRIG/transaction-in-own-shares/16974275
[15] https://www.trig-ltd.com/investors/
[16] https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/TRIG/transaction-in-own-shares/16985908
[17] https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/TRIG/revision-to-ima-and-oma/16912997
[18] https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/TRIG/notice-of-annual-results/16844267
[19] https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/renewables-infrastructure-LON:TRIG/news/reg-renew-infra-grp-ld-transaction-in-own-shares-urn:newsml:reuters.com:20250411:nRSK5808Ea/
[20] https://www.trig-ltd.com
[21] https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/TRIG/announcement-of-2024-annual-results/16912949
[22] https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/t/the-renewables-infrastructure-group-ord-npv/share-news
[23] https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1066029/renewables-infrastructure-group-under-a-cloud-says-analyst-but-2025-should-be-better-for-sector-1066029.html
[24] https://www.trig-ltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/TRIG-Factsheet-February-2025.pdf
[25] https://quoteddata.com/2025/02/the-renewables-infrastructure-group-continues-to-navigate-challenging-market-environment/
[26] https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/TRIG/update-to-ima-oma-introducing-continuation-vote/16957984
[27] https://www.trustintelligence.co.uk/investor/articles/fund-research-investor-trig-renewables-infrastructure-group-retail-apr-2023
[28] https://www.trustintelligence.co.uk/investor/funds/the-renewables-infrastructure-group
[29] https://www.trustintelligence.co.uk/investor/articles/fund-profile-trig-renewables-infrastructure-group-apr-2023/discount
[30] https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/TRIG/revolving-credit-facility-refinanced-and-reduced/16886744
[31] https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1740479103236737800/renewables-infrastructure-cuts-fees-as-net-asset-value-falls-in-2024.aspx
[32] https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/the-renewables-infrastru-TRIG/share-chat
[33] https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/outlook-renewable-energy-sector-2025-ii533705
[34] https://www.fool.co.uk/tickers/lse-trig/
[35] https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/sponsored-content/investing-in-the-energy-transition
[36] https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.html?shareprice=TRIG&share=Renewables-infrastructure-group
[37] https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/LON/TRIG/competitors-and-alternatives/
[38] https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/TRIG/nav-dividend-capital-allocation-update-q4-2024/16893309
[39] https://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/news/industry-news/trig-trebles-buybacks-as-it-navigates-wind-woes
[40] https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/TRIG/the-renewables-infrastructure-group-limited/analysis
[41] https://walletinvestor.com/lse-stock-forecast/trig-stock-prediction
[42] https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-RENEWABLES-INFRASTRUC-13748235/news/Renewables-Infrastructure-Group-Sets-2025-Dividend-Target-at-7-55p-Share-49149323/
[43] https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/renewables-infrastructure-LON:TRIG/
[44] https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/LSE-TRIG/forecast/
[45] https://www.trustintelligence.co.uk/investor/articles/fund-research-investor-trig-renewables-infrastructure-group-retail-dec-2024
[46] https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/exploring-the-renewables-infrastructure-group-trig-l-navigating-high-dividends-amidst-volatile-valuations/4121191525
[47] https://www.fidelity.co.uk/factsheet-data/factsheet/GG00BBHX2H91-the-renewables-infrastructure-grp/risk-and-rating
[48] https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/renewables-TRIG/share-chat?discussion_page=1&page=3
[49] https://www.investments.halifax.co.uk/research-centre/news-centre/article/?id=19006198&type=bsm
[50] https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-RENEWABLES-INFRASTRUC-13748235/calendar/
[51] https://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/news/industry-news/renewables-still-powering-ahead-but-trust-discounts-suggest-investors-havent
[52] https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/investment-trusts/investment-trust-research/the-renewables-infrastructure-group-march-2025-update
[53] https://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/news/industry-news/the-renewables-infrastructure-group-continues-to-navigate-challenging-market
[54] https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/LON/TRIG/forecast/
[55] https://gov.capital/lse-stock-forecast/trig-stock/
[56] https://www.trig-ltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/TRIG-FY-2024-Annual-Report.pdf
[57] https://www.trig-ltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/TRIG-H1-2024-Interim-Report.pdf
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